Emaar Properties PJSC (DFM: EMAAR) delivered second-quarter results that were broadly in line with analyst expectations, but the market response was subdued. The company reported revenue of approximately AED 12 billion and statutory earnings per share (EPS) of AED 0.42. Following the results, Emaar’s shares declined 5.6% over the subsequent week to AED 11.14.
While the quarterly numbers did not significantly miss forecasts, analysts have taken a more cautious view of the company’s earnings outlook. Forecast updates following the results indicate that expectations for 2026 profitability have weakened.
Emaar Properties Forecasts Cut Despite Stable Revenue Outlook
According to consensus estimates from 12 analysts, Emaar is now expected to generate AED 52.4 billion in revenue in 2026, representing a 2.3% decline from the previous year. Statutory EPS is projected at AED 1.79, an 18% year-on-year decline.
Before the earnings announcement, analysts had forecast 2026 revenue of AED 52.8 billion and EPS of AED 2.01. While the revenue outlook has remained largely unchanged, the reduction in EPS expectations suggests analysts are becoming more cautious about the company’s profitability.
Despite the downward revision, the consensus price target has remained broadly stable at AED 16.75. This indicates that analysts do not currently believe the expected earnings decline will materially undermine Emaar’s overall valuation.
Analysts Maintain a Wide Valuation Range
The unchanged consensus target masks differing views among analysts. The most bullish forecast places Emaar’s value at AED 20.50 per share, while the most bearish target stands at AED 13.50. The range reflects varying expectations but does not suggest an extreme divide over the company’s long-term prospects.
Growth Outlook Trails the Wider Industry
Emaar Properties projected performance also appears weaker than the broader real estate sector. Analysts expect the company’s revenue to decline at an annualised rate of 4.6% through the end of 2026, compared with 17% annual growth achieved over the previous five years.
By contrast, companies across the wider industry are collectively expected to deliver approximately 11% annual revenue growth. This suggests Emaar could significantly underperform its industry peers in terms of revenue growth, even as analysts continue to maintain relatively firm valuation expectations.
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