OPEC+ is preparing to approve one final increase in oil production targets for September before pausing its series of monthly quota hikes through the remainder of 2026. The move would mark the completion of the alliance’s plan to gradually restore voluntary production cuts introduced in 2023 while shifting its focus toward longer-term supply management.
According to Reuters, Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Algeria, Kazakhstan, and Oman are expected to collectively raise their September production target by approximately 188,000 barrels per day (bpd) during the group’s meeting scheduled for August 2. The proposed increase mir
rors the adjustments announced for June, July, and August.
If approved, the September increase will complete the phased restoration of a 1.65 million bpd voluntary production cut agreed upon in 2023, with adjustments reflecting the UAE’s exit from OPEC in May.
Output Targets Likely to Remain Unchanged
Following the September increase, OPEC+ is expected to suspend further production target increases through the end of the year. One source familiar with the discussions indicated that existing production targets could remain in place from October until new quota baselines are introduced in January 2027. However, the proposal has not yet been finalized.
Even with the planned increase, the producer alliance would still retain nearly 2 million bpd of broader production cuts through the end of 2026, giving the group flexibility to respond to future market conditions.
Quota Review Takes Center Stage
The anticipated pause shifts attention to a more complex issue: determining how much oil each member should be allowed to produce from 2027 onward.
OPEC+ is currently reviewing the maximum sustainable production capacity of its member countries, which will serve as the foundation for new production baselines beginning in 2027. Several producers, including Iraq, are pushing for larger quotas, arguing that recent investments have significantly expanded their production capabilities.
The review is expected to be one of the alliance’s most closely watched negotiations, as production quotas directly influence future revenue and market share for member nations.
Geopolitical Challenges Complicate Supply Picture
Recent geopolitical and operational disruptions have made assessing actual production capacity increasingly difficult. The conflict involving Iran has reduced exports from several Middle Eastern producers and significantly lowered the group’s effective spare production capacity.
Also Read :- Saudi Residential Property Transactions Decline 21% in Q2 Amid Sluggish Real Estate Activity